Risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease in children with posterior urethral valves.

OBJECTIVE To identify the variables which affect long-term renal outcome in children with posterior urethral valves (PUV). MATERIALS AND METHODS Retrospective analysis of 260 children with PUV who underwent ablation of valves in 1992-2008 at our tertiary care center. The following risk factors for progression to end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were analyzed: nadir serum creatinine greater than 1.0mg/dl, bilateral grade 3 or higher VUR at diagnosis, recurrent febrile UTIs, and severe bladder dysfunction. Patients were divided into two groups: those who developed ESRD (group 1) and those who did not (group 2). RESULTS Forty (17.62%) patients had nadir serum creatinine >1mg/dl. At time of initial presentation, high-grade VUR was seen in 63.1% and 33.5% of groups 1 and 2, respectively (P=0.002). Overall, 77 (34%) of the boys developed breakthrough urinary tract infections: 37.03% and 33.5% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (P=1). Fifty-nine (26%) patients were found to have severe bladder dysfunction: 77.8% and 19% in groups 1 and 2, respectively (P<0.0001). Twenty-seven (11.89%) patients progressed to ESRD, at mean age of 11.21 years (5-16). On univariate analysis, the risk-predicting variables were: nadir serum creatinine value greater than 1mg/dl (P<0.0001), bilateral high-grade VUR (P=0.002) and severe bladder dysfunction (P<0.0001). On multivariate logistic regression analysis, nadir serum creatinine greater than 1mg/dl (OR 23.79; CI 8.20-69.05) and severe bladder dysfunction (OR 5.67; CI 1.90-16.93) were found to be independent risk factors predictive of ultimate progression to ESRD. CONCLUSIONS Nadir serum creatinine and bladder dysfunction are the main factors affecting long-term renal outcome in cases of PUV. Early identification and treatment of bladder dysfunction may thus be beneficial.